It’s no surprise to see Carabobo at the bottom of the group, but it is unexpected that reigning champions Botafogo currently sit third, already three points behind the play-off places.
Carabobo, a team that typically features in the Copa Libertadores only once a decade, have done little to make an impact. One draw from three matches appears to be the most they can manage. Carabobo have yet to score a single goal, though they have not been heavily beaten either—conceding two goals apiece to Estudiantes de La Plata and Botafogo.
In their first encounter in Rio de Janeiro, Botafogo struggled for much of the match to find a way past Lucas Bruera. Despite dominating proceedings, they only managed to score in the 88th minute. They registered 18 attempts to Carabobo’s seven, with the hosts also managing seven shots—but theirs were on target. Botafogo had 71% possession and created four clear-cut chances. While those statistics suggest they should have scored more, an xG tally of 1.67 supports the narrow final margin.
Botafogo have been notably inefficient in front of goal, a trend that mirrors their current 11th-place standing in the Brazilian top flight—a league where most clubs are considerably stronger than Carabobo. In the Copa Libertadores, they have failed to break down sturdier opponents such as Club Universidad de Chile and Estudiantes de La Plata. This leaves them with a single realistic opportunity to collect three points—from the group underdogs. Botafogo are expected to win, but how emphatic will the victory be? We believe they will not score more than twice.
